Review the Latest Player Stats for Cubs vs Phillies – Monday, June 9, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

On June 9, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are currently in playoff contention, with the Cubs leading the National League Central with a record of 40-25, while the Phillies sit in second place in the National League East at 37-28. The stakes are high as these teams look to gain ground in their respective divisions.

In their last outings, the Phillies suffered a close 2-1 defeat, while the Cubs faced a more significant setback, losing 4-0. Interestingly, despite the Cubs’ strong season, they are on a two-game losing streak and will face a tough matchup against Zack Wheeler, who is projected to pitch for the Phillies. Wheeler, ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has an impressive ERA of 2.96 and a solid Win/Loss record of 6-2 this year. His advanced stats project that he will allow an average of 2.3 earned runs today, which indicates he is likely to perform well.

On the other hand, Matthew Boyd is set to take the mound for the Cubs. Although he has had a good season with a 3.01 ERA and a 5-3 record, he ranks 39th among MLB starters. The projections suggest that he may face challenges against a Phillies offense that ranks 10th best in MLB, especially given Wheeler’s ability to limit walks against a Cubs lineup that excels in drawing them.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets view this as a closely contested match. Philadelphia’s current moneyline of -130 reflects a 54% implied win probability, highlighting their slight edge. Given the Cubs’ recent struggles and Wheeler’s elite status, the Phillies look like the stronger play in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  In his previous game started, Matthew Boyd was rolling and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Considering that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Zack Wheeler (35.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Johan Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 86.2-mph mark last season has fallen to 82.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+10.24 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 59 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)
  Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 51% ROI)