Official Lineup for Red Sox vs Yankees – 6/08/2025

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on June 8, 2025, the stakes are high in this pivotal American League East matchup. The Yankees, boasting a strong record of 39-24, are having a great season, while the Red Sox sit at 31-35, struggling to find their footing. The Yankees will look to bounce back after a tough 10-7 loss yesterday, while the Red Sox celebrated a similar victory against them.

Carlos Rodon, projected to start for the Yankees, is having an excellent season with a 2.49 ERA and a solid 31.6% strikeout rate, making him the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His last outing on June 3 saw him go 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 8 batters. However, projections suggest he may face some challenges today, as he is expected to allow 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has struggled this season, posting a 4.06 ERA. His 3.39 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, but his recent performance has not been inspiring, as he pitched just 4 innings in his last start, surrendering 4 earned runs.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB in runs scored and home runs, while the Red Sox are a respectable 5th. However, the Yankees’ explosive offense could pose a significant challenge for Dobbins, who will need to maintain control against a lineup that leads the league in walks drawn.

With the Yankees favored at a moneyline of -220, their strong offensive and pitching metrics suggest they have a good chance to reclaim momentum in this series against their longtime rivals. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested matchup.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Hunter Dobbins – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Hunter Dobbins has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Trevor Story is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Carlos Rodon’s four-seamer utilization has decreased by 8.2% from last season to this one (49.4% to 41.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 100.5-mph mark last season has fallen off to 98.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.333 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .347 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.07 Units / 15% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 46% ROI)