Live Stream for Orioles vs Mariners Game – Thursday, June 5, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Seattle Mariners

As the Baltimore Orioles visit T-Mobile Park to face the Seattle Mariners on June 5, 2025, they both enter this matchup on contrasting trends. The Mariners are having an above-average season with a record of 32-28, while the Orioles sit at a disappointing 24-36. In their previous meeting on June 4, the Mariners lost a tight game 3-2, whereas the Orioles emerged victorious by the same score, continuing their slight uptick in performance.

Projected starters Bryan Woo for the Mariners and Zach Eflin for the Orioles both bring right-handed power to the mound. Woo ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings and boasts an impressive ERA of 2.82 this season. However, his xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year, hinting at possible regression. On the other hand, Eflin has performed reasonably well but sits at 77th in the Power Rankings, with an ERA of 4.46 and an expectation for better outcomes moving forward given his lower xERA.

The Mariners’ offense has shown significant power this season, ranking 6th in MLB with 80 home runs, while the Orioles rank just 13th in that department. This clash of strengths could favor the Mariners, especially considering Eflin’s tendency to allow fly balls. The Mariners also feature the 12th best offense overall, according to the projections, while the Orioles check in at 21st.

The Mariners enter as betting favorites, with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a calculated belief that they have the edge in this matchup despite some recent struggles. As both teams look to improve their standing, this game promises to be a crucial one for the Mariners as they try to maintain their competitive position in the league.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Zach Eflin is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #8 HR venue in MLB — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Bryan Woo’s four-seamer utilization has decreased by 7% from last season to this one (49% to 42%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  J.P. Crawford has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 78.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)