Track the Live Score for Astros vs Rangers – 5/18/2025

Houston Astros

@

Texas Rangers

On May 18, 2025, the Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros in the fourth game of their series, following a decisive 5-1 victory for the Rangers on May 17. The Rangers currently sit with a record of 25-22, showing an above-average performance this season, while the Astros are at 23-22, indicating a more average showing. The stakes are high as both teams look to gain an edge in the competitive American League West.

Jack Leiter is projected to start for the Rangers. Despite being ranked as the 240th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has managed to post a 3-2 record with an ERA of 4.34. His performance suggests he may have been fortunate, as indicated by his higher 4.87 SIERA. Leiter’s ability to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs on average could be key, especially against an Astros lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 5th lowest in home runs this season.

On the other hand, Framber Valdez, ranked 18th among MLB starters, brings a solid 3.54 ERA despite a challenging 2-4 record. Valdez has been effective in his last outing, going 8 innings with only 1 earned run allowed, and he projects to pitch 6.3 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs. However, his tendency to allow 5.6 hits could be concerning against a Rangers offense that, while ranking 25th overall, has shown flashes of power with a 14th place ranking in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and both teams at -110 on the moneyline, the betting markets anticipate a closely contested matchup. The Rangers’ recent win and their superior starting pitcher could provide them with an edge in this pivotal game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.2-mph average last season has dropped to 81.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Jack Leiter (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Houston’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)