Get the Latest Score Updates for Reds vs Astros – Friday May 09, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Houston Astros

On May 9, 2025, the Houston Astros host the Cincinnati Reds at Minute Maid Park in what marks the opening game of their interleague series. The Astros are looking to build on their recent momentum after a dominant 9-1 victory on May 7, while the Reds are coming off a narrow 5-4 loss in their last game on May 4. With both teams hovering around the .500 mark, this matchup offers an intriguing glimpse into their current form.

Starting for the Astros is Hunter Brown, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. Holding an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar 1.67 ERA, Brown ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a key asset for Houston. His ability to pile up strikeouts—averaging 6.9 per game—will be critical against a Reds offense that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB. Additionally, Brown’s low walk rate of 6.3% could stifle Cincinnati’s approach, as they are known for being patient at the plate.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Nick Martinez, who has struggled to find his footing with a 1-3 record and a 4.19 ERA. Although he is projected to pitch a solid 5.5 innings, his tendency to give up hits (averaging 5.6 per game) could spell trouble against an Astros lineup that, despite ranking 20th in MLB offensively, possesses the potential to capitalize on Martinez’s shortcomings.

With Houston favored at a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.24 runs, the projections indicate they should get the better of this matchup. If Hunter Brown can harness his elite strikeout ability and control, the Astros may well continue their winning ways against a Reds team that needs to find consistency if they hope to contend.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Nick Martinez (34.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Houston’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Rece Hinds).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Hunter Brown has used his cutter 11% less often this season (5.9%) than he did last year (16.9%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  In the past 7 days, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #29 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games (+5.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+250/-350)
  Tyler Stephenson has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)