Athletics
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+115
On May 2, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Oakland Athletics at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Miami is looking to break out of a slump, having lost their last game against the Atlanta Braves by a score of 12-7. Meanwhile, Oakland is riding high after a solid 3-0 win in their most recent outing against the New York Yankees.
As it stands, the Marlins are struggling with a 12-18 record this season, while the Athletics sit at a respectable 17-15. The Marlins’ offense ranks 15th in MLB, buoyed by a strong batting average that places them 6th overall, but they have not been able to translate that into consistent scoring. Their best hitter has been productive lately, boasting a .750 batting average over the past week.
On the mound, Miami is set to start Valente Bellozo, who despite having an impressive 2.25 ERA this season, ranks as the 269th best pitcher in MLB. His xFIP of 5.57 suggests that he may have been fortunate thus far, and he is projected to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs while pitching just 4.4 innings. Bellozo’s low strikeout percentage may not serve him well against a relatively disciplined Athletics lineup.
Oakland, on the other hand, will counter with Gunnar Hoglund, who is also struggling in the Power Rankings. Hoglund projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs on average. Both pitchers come into this game with questions surrounding their effectiveness, but the Athletics’ offense, ranked 9th in MLB, looks primed to capitalize on any mistakes.
With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Marlins are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +120, indicating a chance for value given their offensive capabilities. Oakland, favored at -140, will look to build on their solid start to the season against a faltering Marlins squad.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)Gunnar Hoglund is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Seth Brown is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Athletics have hit 29.8% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, ranking them as the #21 squad in MLB by this standard.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Valente Bellozo in the 7th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Batters such as Dane Myers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Gunnar Hoglund who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)