Tampa Bay Rays
San Diego Padres
(+105/-125)-150
The San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 25, 2025, in the first game of an interleague series. Both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes: the Padres hold a strong 17-8 record, signaling a great season thus far, while the Rays struggle at 11-14, marking a disappointing start. The Padres are looking to bounce back after a tough 6-0 loss to the New York Mets on April 23, while the Rays are coming off a 7-4 victory over the Boston Red Sox.
On the mound, the Padres are set to start Michael King, who has been impressive this season with a 3-0 record and an excellent 2.57 ERA. King is ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he’s performing at a high level. However, his 3.63 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. King projects to pitch around 5.9 innings today, allowing roughly 2.2 earned runs with a solid strikeout rate of 6.9.
In contrast, the Rays will counter with Shane Baz, who has a 2-0 record and a great 3.22 ERA. Although he ranks 47th among starting pitchers, Baz’s 33.7% strikeout rate could be a concern for the Padres, who are the least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. Baz’s last outing was rough, as he allowed 5 earned runs in just 3 innings against the Chicago White Sox.
Offensively, the Padres boast the 5th best lineup in MLB, while the Rays sit at 11th. San Diego’s offense is particularly strong, ranking 3rd in team batting average, which could exploit any weaknesses in Baz’s game. The projections suggest the Padres will score around 3.79 runs, while the Rays are expected to struggle with a low implied team total of 3.21 runs. With the Padres as betting favorites at -150, this matchup presents a favorable opportunity for San Diego to capitalize on their strong season against a Rays team still searching for consistency.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Shane Baz is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Today, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.1% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Michael King has gone to his slider 5.6% more often this season (28.8%) than he did last season (23.2%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph figure last season has dropped off to 82.1-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 20.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in their last 11 games at home (+13.30 Units / 106% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)