Tickets Information for Phillies vs Cardinals – April 13, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to bounce back against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 13, 2025, after losing to them 4-1 in the previous game. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 6-8, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Phillies are performing well at 9-5.

As the series continues, Cardinals pitcher Matthew Liberatore is projected to take the mound against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Liberatore, ranked the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB, has faced challenges this season, holding a 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 5.84. His last start was particularly rough, as he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. However, projections suggest he may be due for a turnaround, with a lower xFIP indicating some bad luck early in the season.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler has been impressive, boasting a 1-0 record and a solid 3.44 ERA, ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB. Though his last outing was also challenging, allowing 5 earned runs, the projections indicate he’s still a top performer who could dominate against a struggling Cardinals lineup.

Offensively, the Cardinals have the 3rd best offense in MLB despite their struggles, showing potential to capitalize on Wheeler’s weaknesses. Conversely, the Phillies rank 9th in the league, bolstered by a strong performance from their best hitter, who has highlighted his power with 6 home runs this season.

With the Game Total set at an average of 8.0 runs and the Cardinals viewed as underdogs, there may still be an opportunity for them to surprise the betting community. If Liberatore can harness his better projections, this matchup could provide an intriguing storyline for both teams.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Zack Wheeler may not stay in the game more than a couple frames since he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Typically, batters like Johan Rojas who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Matthew Liberatore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Liberatore will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Alec Burleson has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last season has lowered to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 group of hitters in the league since the start of last season by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+10.35 Units / 106% ROI)