Winning Probability and Match Preview for Yankees vs Royals – 5/25/2026

New York Yankees

@

Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees Insights

• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  When it comes to his batting average ability, Aaron Judge is projected as the 6th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Michael Wacha has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  The switch-hitting Isaac Collins will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Will Warren… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Warren’s large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kansas City’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.