Analyze the Rockies vs Dodgers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Tuesday, July 07, 2026

Colorado Rockies

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Michael Lorenzen has recorded 14.2 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Tyler Freeman is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Braxton Fulford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Braxton Fulford has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Justin Wrobleski encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-260)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-260)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  T.J. Rumfield has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)