Astros vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips – July 7th, 2026

Houston Astros

@

Washington Nationals

Houston Astros Insights

• Tatsuya Imai – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tatsuya Imai has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Nick Allen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach Dezenzo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+235/-325)
  Zach Dezenzo has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 9 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Andrew Alvarez encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Curtis Mead’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.3-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.