Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Padres – Tuesday, July 07, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Zac Gallen’s fastball velocity of 92.8 mph is in the 24th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Corbin Carroll has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 98.2-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Gabriel Moreno has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Jhony Brito – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 70.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jhony Brito checks in at the 2nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jackson Merrill’s true offensive ability to be a .336, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .063 gap between that mark and his actual .273 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)