Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Mets vs Cubs – Saturday, April 18th, 2026

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Freddy Peralta’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph decline from last year’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brett Baty is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (MJ Melendez, Luis Robert Jr., Francisco Alvarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Jameson Taillon (40.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Michael Busch’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 82.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 71.5-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs bats as a unit place 5th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 9.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.