Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Reds vs Padres - Tuesday, June 9th, 2026

-135O/U: 7
(-120/+100)+115

Chase Burns – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Tallying 17.6 outs per start this year on average, Chase Burns falls in the 84th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Sal Stewart has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Lucas Giolito’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (62.2% vs. 51.6% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Freddy Fermin’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.4-mph EV last season has dropped off to 87-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+115)
The San Diego Padres projected offense grades out as the 3rd-worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Blake Dunn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Blake Dunn has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)

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