Starting Lineup for Reds vs Rockies - July 19, 2026

-165O/U: 11
(-110/-110)+145

Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Greene has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% less often this season (40.7%) than he did last season (45.8%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
JJ Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Colorado (#3-worst on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Cincinnati Reds will tally 7.73 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams in action today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+145)
Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Tyler Freeman is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Colorado Rockies in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+4.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)

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