
Minnesota Twins
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Chicago Cubs
+145O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-170
(-110/-110)-170
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Generating 18.3 outs per GS this year on average, Zebby Matthews falls in the 94th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Shota Imanaga’s sinker percentage has increased by 5.3% from last year to this one (1.2% to 6.5%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Pete Crow-Armstrong has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-170)The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Luke Keaschall has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.15 Units / 35% ROI)
