Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Reds vs Nationals – 8/09/26

Cincinnati Reds

@

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Brady Singer has averaged 93.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Washington’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for JJ Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Brad Lord will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jose Tena has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)