
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Atlanta Braves
-110O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (48% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in Atlanta’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Atlanta’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order ranks as the best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in this game, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Lane Thomas is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Atlanta Braves – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)Austin Riley has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+15.60 Units / 173% ROI)
