See the Phillies vs Brewers Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday June 13th, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Aaron Nola’s curveball percentage has risen by 5% from last season to this one (29.2% to 34.2%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Edmundo Sosa has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 22.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 11.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In today’s matchup, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.1% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Shane Drohan – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Shane Drohan’s 2424-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Garrett Mitchell has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 12.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+14.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 35% ROI)