See Picks and Betting Line for Marlins vs Brewers - Friday, July 17, 2026

+125O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-150

Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
Sandy Alcantara has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Griffin Conine pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 85th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Logan Henderson faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 45% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)

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