See Picks and Betting Line for Marlins vs Brewers – Friday, July 17, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Sandy Alcantara has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Griffin Conine pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 85th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Logan Henderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Logan Henderson faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.95 Units / 41% ROI)