Learn About Marlins vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Trends – Wednesday September 16, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Ryan Gusto has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Despite posting a .363 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Griffin Conine has been very fortunate given the .051 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Merrill Kelly has utilized his cutter 7.2% less often this year (13.4%) than he did last year (20.6%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Pavin Smith is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 35% ROI)