Read the Boxscore for Phillies vs Mets – Thursday September 17th, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  In his previous game started, Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders and put up 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Philadelphia Phillies with a 19.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Nolan McLean has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Francisco Alvarez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.