Follow the Live Updates for Mets vs Marlins - 9/7/2026

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135

Jonah Tong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Jonah Tong’s high utilization rate of his fastball (53% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Eury Perez’s 2680-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Griffin Conine stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 52% ROI)

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