
Chicago Cubs
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Milwaukee Brewers
+105O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-125
(-110/-110)-125
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+105)The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Tyrone Taylor is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in today’s game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .320, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Robert Gasser – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-200)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Robert Gasser is projected to throw 83 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of all pitchers on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Garrett Mitchell has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively have been one of the best in the majors this year (4th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+165)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+6.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)Tyrone Taylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+18.50 Units / 206% ROI)
