Review Rockies vs D-Backs Betting Line and Odds – 5/23/2026

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Grading out in the 25th percentile, Michael Lorenzen posted an 8.8% Swinging Strike% this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Jake McCarthy is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .321 overall projected rate, the .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Zac Gallen has averaged 14.7 outs per start this year, grading out in the 25th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #25 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 35 games at home (+17.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• Troy Johnston – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Troy Johnston has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 35% ROI)