Player Insights for Pirates vs Blue Jays - 5/24/26

+150O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-175

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Mitch Keller’s slider rate has dropped by 7.6% from last season to this one (33% to 25.4%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Among all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph is in the 95th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
Ernie Clement has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 81.2-mph in the past week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.75 Units / 86% ROI)

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