Recommended Player Prop Bets for Yankees vs Brewers – Sunday May 10, 2026

New York Yankees

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Milwaukee Brewers

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-105)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, bats like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Henderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Logan Henderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Luis Rengifo has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)