Review the Latest Player Stats for Cubs vs Rangers - Sunday, May 10, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120

Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Jameson Taillon’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (64.5% vs. 54.6% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
Moises Ballesteros has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 11.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
In today’s matchup, Dansby Swanson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Among all starters, Jacob deGrom’s fastball velocity of 96.5 mph is in the 90th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Joc Pederson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
It may be sensible to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+15.90 Units / 36% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
Carson Kelly has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics