Rays vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 9/12/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 12, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings with just a few weeks left in the season. The Cubs currently hold a strong record of 83-63, positioning themselves well for a playoff push, while the Rays, at 72-74, find themselves in a less favorable position with no realistic shot at the division title.

In their last outing, the Cubs had an impressive showing, and they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Wrigley Field. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding an extra layer of excitement for both squads. The Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd, who has had an excellent season with a 2.92 ERA and a solid 12-8 record over 28 starts. However, advanced statistics suggest he might have been a bit lucky this year, as indicated by his 4.08 xFIP.

On the other hand, the Rays will counter with right-handed pitcher Shane Baz, who has struggled somewhat with a 4.94 ERA and a 9-11 record over the same number of starts. While Baz’s 3.84 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, his performance has generally been below average, especially when facing a potent Cubs offense that ranks 10th in MLB.

The Cubs’ offense also shines in home runs, ranking 8th, and they have been productive in the past week, featuring their best hitter with a stellar .417 batting average. Meanwhile, the Rays have managed to keep pace in batting average at 7th, but their overall offensive output has been inconsistent.

Given the Cubs’ strong pitching and solid lineup, they come into this game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -170, suggesting they are well-positioned to take the opener against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Shane Baz’s 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Junior Caminero has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Matthew Boyd has recorded 17.8 outs per outing this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ian Happ has had bad variance on his side this year. His .329 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .358.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 120 games (+11.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Shane Baz – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-160/+125)
  Shane Baz has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI)