Mets vs Guardians Injury Report - Tuesday, August 04, 2026

+125O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-150

Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
The Cleveland Guardians have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Sean Manaea today, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-275/+205)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 7th-best batter in the game when estimating his batting average talent.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Jorge Polanco – Over/Under Total Bases
Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

David Fry – Over/Under Hits
David Fry is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 56% ROI)

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