
San Francisco Giants
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Colorado Rockies
-120O/U: 13
(-110/-110)+100
(-110/-110)+100
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+135)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tyler Mahle is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Extreme groundball batters like Willy Adames usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Gordon.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge, Drew Cavanaugh).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Gordon has used his secondary offerings 12.8% more often this season (60%) than he did last year (47.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)Edouard Julien is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-140)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-115/-115)Hunter Goodman has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
