Game Time for Brewers vs D-Backs – 7/05/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Brandon Sproat has been unlucky this year, notching a 5.28 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.26 — a 1.02 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Gary Sanchez is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph is in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Geraldo Perdomo’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 84.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Gabriel Moreno has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Eduardo Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 51% ROI)