Learn from the Match Preview: Pirates vs Phillies Game Forecast - June 29, 2026

-110O/U: 9
(-105/-115)-110

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Recording 18.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Braxton Ashcraft places him the 93rd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Konnor Griffin – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
Konnor Griffin is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Aaron Nola’s four-seamer utilization has decreased by 6% from last year to this one (30.2% to 24.2%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Justin Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Justin Crawford has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Philadelphia Phillies offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 44% ROI)

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