Learn from the Match Preview: Pirates vs Phillies Game Forecast – June 29, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Recording 18.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Braxton Ashcraft places him the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under Hits
  Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Aaron Nola’s four-seamer utilization has decreased by 6% from last year to this one (30.2% to 24.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Justin Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Justin Crawford has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Philadelphia Phillies offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.