Injuries Update for Reds vs Phillies - May 19, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-140

Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Chase Burns’s 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
When it comes to his batting average, JJ Bleday has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .228 BA has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .176.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Bryce Harper has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-140)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)

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