Injuries Update for Reds vs Phillies – May 19, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Chase Burns’s 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  When it comes to his batting average, JJ Bleday has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .228 BA has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .176.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bryce Harper has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)