
Colorado Rockies
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Los Angeles Angels
+135O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-155
(-110/-110)-155
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Among all starters, Tomoyuki Sugano’s fastball spin rate of 2423 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Troy Johnston – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Troy Johnston’s true offensive ability to be a .291, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .348 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Recording 91.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Grayson Rodriguez ranks in the 75th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Mike Trout has strong power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (26.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Trout.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 43% ROI)
