
San Francisco Giants
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Athletics
+115O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Trevor McDonald is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #7 HR venue in the majors — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- The San Francisco Giants have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future gamesExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Athletics Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Luis Severino’s four-seam fastball usage has fallen by 6.6% from last season to this one (27.6% to 21%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Henry Bolte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)Henry Bolte has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineThe Athletics bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-135/+105)Nick Kurtz has hit the Walks Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
