Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Marlins vs Rays – May 17, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Eury Perez (42.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Xavier Edwards tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Owen Caissie, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Drew Rasmussen’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.4% vs. 41.8% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Richie Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a group rank 30th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 4.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)