Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Marlins vs Rays – May 17, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Eury Perez (42.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Xavier Edwards tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joe Mack, Owen Caissie, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Drew Rasmussen in the 78th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Richie Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.