Miami Marlins
Texas Rangers
(+100/-120)-125
On September 21, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Miami Marlins at Globe Life Field for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are out of contention for their respective divisions, with the Rangers holding a record of 79-76, while the Marlins sit at 75-80. The Rangers are having an average season, but their playoff hopes hinge on a strong finish, while the Marlins have struggled, currently holding a below-average record.
In their previous matchup, the Texas Rangers managed to edge out the Marlins, which adds some momentum for the home team. Merrill Kelly is projected to start for the Rangers, and he has been solid this season with a 12-8 record and a commendable ERA of 3.46. However, his peripheral numbers suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xERA sits at 4.12. Kelly’s ability to keep earned runs to a minimum, projected at 2.1 for this game, will be crucial against a Marlins offense that ranks 17th in the league.
Eury Perez will take the mound for the Marlins. With a record of 7-5 and an ERA of 4.40, Perez’s performances have been somewhat inconsistent. The projections indicate he may improve, as his xERA is lower than his actual ERA. However, he has struggled with walks, projected to allow 1.5 today, which could be a significant factor against a Rangers offense that, despite ranking 26th overall, has shown flashes of capability, particularly in the stolen base department.
The betting lines reflect a close contest, with the Rangers favored at -130, suggesting that while they are expected to win, it won’t be easy. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, runs may be hard to come by, making every at-bat crucial.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Among all SPs, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2682 rpm grades out in the 100th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Heriberto Hernandez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 99-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Miami Marlins are expected to record the least runs (3.62 on average) on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Tallying 17.4 outs per outing this year on average, Merrill Kelly places him the 87th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Joc Pederson has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .183 mark is a good deal lower than his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- As a team, Texas Rangers batters have struggled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+175)The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games at home (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 95 games (+20.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)