Follow the Live Updates for Orioles vs Athletics – 8/28/2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Athletics

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Brandon Young – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Young has gone to his secondary offerings 10% less often this season (46.2%) than he did last season (56.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dylan Beavers is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s matchup, Coby Mayo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.8% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+120)
  The Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under Hits
  Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Athletics in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .294, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .314 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under Team Total
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)