D-Backs vs Giants Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Friday August 28, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Kohl Drake is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under Hits
  Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under Total Bases
  Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Blade Tidwell has been lucky this year, compiling a 3.58 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.31 — a 0.73 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the San Francisco Giants projected batting order today (.291 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .308 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.