D-Backs vs Giants Expert Picks and Betting Tips - Friday August 28, 2026

-120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+100

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
Kohl Drake is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Nolan Arenado has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
James McCann has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
Blade Tidwell has been lucky this year, compiling a 3.58 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.31 — a 0.73 discrepancy.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rafael Devers, Jonah Cox, Shay Whitcomb, Bryce Eldridge).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+10.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+105/-135)
Lars Nootbaar has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.90 Units / 47% ROI)

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