Follow Live Updates on Nationals vs Marlins – Friday, May 8th, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals Insights

• Foster Griffin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Foster Griffin has averaged 17 outs per start this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Daylen Lile has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Xavier Edwards has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 84.2-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Christopher Morel, Joe Mack).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+12.50 Units / 139% ROI)