
New York Mets
@

San Francisco Giants
+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120
(-110/-110)-120
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineIn his previous start, Clay Holmes was rolling and gave up 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Brett Baty – Over/Under HitsBrett Baty has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- It may be best to expect weaker performance for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under Pitching OutsRecording 14.5 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Landen Roupp checks in at the 15th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under Stolen BasesPatrick Bailey’s footspeed has dropped off this season. His 25.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.32 ft/sec now.Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under Team TotalThe New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 59 away games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
