
Texas Rangers
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Toronto Blue Jays
+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Texas Rangers Insights
- Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)Kumar Rocker’s 2161-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 20th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Corey Seager has been unlucky this year, putting up a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .366 — a .081 gap.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Shane Bieber – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Tallying 17.3 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, Shane Bieber places in the 91st percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Yohendrick Pinango – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Yohendrick Pinango is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
