Game Forecast: Reds vs Pirates Match Preview – 6/28/26

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Brady Singer has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Dane Myers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has decreased by 7% from last season to this one (33% to 26%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has fallen to 83.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .327 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.