Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Phillies vs Mets – June 28, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Out of all starters, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph grades out in the 88th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In the past 7 days, Derek Hill’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.6% up to 37.5%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense grades out as the 4th-best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Cionel Perez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cionel Perez to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Juan Soto’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 98.7-mph figure last season has dropped to 96.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets bats collectively rank near the top of baseball this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 30 games (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+8.10 Units / 53% ROI)