Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Phillies vs Mets – June 28, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starters, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph grades out in the 88th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (30% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cionel Perez struggles to strike batters out (12th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Derek Hill, Brandon Marsh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Cionel Perez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cionel Perez to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Juan Soto’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 98.7-mph figure last season has dropped to 96.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets bats collectively rank near the top of baseball this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.