Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Reds - April 28th, 2026

+165O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-190

Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Freeland to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Chase Burns projects as the 16th-best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball right now when estimating his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Nathaniel Lowe may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Cincinnati Reds (25.4% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone team of hitters of the day.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+100)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
Kyle Karros has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)

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