Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Reds – April 28th, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 68 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Chase Burns projects as the 16th-best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball right now when estimating his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Nathaniel Lowe may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Cincinnati Reds (25.4% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone team of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +1.0 (-120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Kyle Karros has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)