Check the Weather for Mets vs Marlins Game - 5/24/2026

+110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-130

Christian Scott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Christian Scott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2446 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2333 rpm).
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the New York Mets projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tyler Phillips – Over/Under Pitching Outs
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tyler Phillips to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Owen Caissie has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.55 Units / 49% ROI)
Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)

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