Check Out the Astros vs Mariners Best Bets and Expert Picks - Monday April 13, 2026

+150O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-175

Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Mike Burrows’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 76th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
Yainer Diaz’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 89.9-mph figure last season has fallen off to 85.6-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
Tallying 92.7 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, George Kirby falls in the 82nd percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
Mitch Garver has put up a .168 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
The Seattle Mariners have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)

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