Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-145
On August 3, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Kansas City Royals to Rogers Centre for the third game of their series. The Blue Jays are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 65-47, which places them well in the playoff hunt. In contrast, the Royals sit at 55-56, having had an average season thus far.
In their most recent matchup, the Blue Jays secured a win, further solidifying their momentum. Toronto’s ace Chris Bassitt is expected to take the mound, bringing an 11-5 record and a 4.24 ERA this season. Despite having an average ranking as the 109th best starting pitcher in MLB, Bassitt’s projections suggest he has been on the wrong side of luck, with a 3.61 xFIP indicating he could perform better in the near future.
Facing him is Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, who has also been effective with an 8-5 record and a stellar 3.03 ERA. Lugo has shown signs of luck with a higher xFIP of 4.14, which hints that he might regress. However, he’ll look to leverage the Blue Jays’ tendency to strike out against a Royals offense that ranks just 26th in MLB.
Offensively, the Blue Jays boast the 6th best offense in the league and lead in batting average. In contrast, the Royals’ offense is struggling, sitting 26th overall. The Blue Jays’ high-octane lineup has an implied team total of 4.58 runs, indicating confidence from the betting markets.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The 7.5% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals ranks them as the #26 offense in MLB this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 111 games (+19.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 89 games (+20.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)Joey Loperfido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+9.40 Units / 117% ROI)