Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Mets vs Rockies 5/4/26

New York Mets

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Colorado Rockies

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under Strikeouts
  David Peterson’s 2164-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 21st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tomoyuki Sugano to throw 85 pitches today (6th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ezequiel Tovar has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 79.9-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.